Welcome back to another edition of My Take 5, your weekly roundup of international news. This week we are discussing the Pahalgam terror attack and its fallout, China’s support for Pakistan, the Ukraine-US minerals deal, Liberals’ surprising win in Canada, and 50 years since the end of the Vietnam war. So let's get to it.
Pahalgam terror attack: In the worst terror attack in years, 26 tourists were gunned down by terrorists in Kashmir’s Pahalgam. The attack has not only shocked the nation but also posed a serious challenge for security agencies. That despite Kashmir’s formidable security dragnet the terrorists were able to slip through and cause mayhem against tourists – when targeting tourists has been a rarity in Kashmir – certainly points to serious lapses. Those lapses need to be thoroughly investigated and the probe report made public as soon as possible so that future Pahalgams are averted. This much we owe to the victims of the massacre and their grieving families, as well as to the state of Jammu & Kashmir that was on the path to normalcy after the nullification of its special status in 2019.
The next issue, however, is how should the Indian state respond to this provocation. For, the manner in which the Pahalgam attack was carried out, targeting Hindu, male tourists, was certainly meant to cause outrage and inflame communal passions in the country. The timing too was carefully chosen – when PM Modi was on a visit to Saudi Arabia and US Vice-President JD Vance was in India.
Therefore, Pahalgam was designed for maximum mileage and international attention. That it also came barely a week after Pakistan army chief Asim Munir gave a vitriolic speech against India in which he described Kashmir as Pakistan's “jugular” is more than just coincidence. The terrorists and their handlers in Pakistan, as well as the masterminds in Rawalpindi GHQ, wanted to divert attention from the Pakistani army’s own reverses in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in recent months. And with Pakistan’s economy in the ICU, and Imran Khan in jail, Munir’s so-called hybrid regime of a government in Islamabad was losing the Pakistani people’s confidence. Therefore, it is quite plausible that the Generals resorted to the oldest trick in their book to tackle the crisis of credibility – start trouble in Kashmir with India.
New Delhi has said it will retaliate against the terror perpetrators and has announced a first batch of measures that include suspending the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, cancelling visas for Pakistani nationals, downgrading its diplomatic staff in Islamabad and ordering the down-staffing of the Pakistani high commission here. Pakistan has in turn responded by suspending the 1972 Simla Agreement and closing its airspace to India.
But New Delhi also reserves the right to carry out military-security operations against the terrorists and their handlers. Cross-border firing between Indian and Pakistani forces have restarted as both armies are on alert for a major clash. However, with the Ukraine and Gaza wars still going on, the international community, especially the US Trump administration, wouldn’t be in favour of another major conflagration in South Asia.
This presents a tricky situation for New Delhi that feels that the security equilibrium in the region has been broken with Pahalgam and needs to be restored. What military-security actions it takes will be carefully monitored by the world.
China stands with Pakistan: China has practically stood with Pakistan in the aftermath of the Pahalgam attacks. Beijing has called for a swift and fair investigation into the attack, echoing Islamabad’s position, and asserted that it understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports it in safeguarding its security interests and security concerns. In other words, China doesn’t support India taking any military-security action against Pakistani terrorists and their handlers on Pakistani soil.
This seriously complicates things for New Delhi. First, despite the nascent thaw on the India-China LAC in recent months, there are still 50,000 Indian troops facing an equal number of Chinese soldiers along the LAC. Those Indian troops can’t be redeployed to the Pakistan sector for the fear of Chinese soldiers making further ingress into Indian territory. Second, in the event of a limited conflict with Pakistan, if Beijing provides geospatial intelligence to Islamabad through its huge constellation of satellites, then that will be a disadvantage for New Delhi. Third, with China continuing to rapidly develop military and dual-use infrastructure along the LAC, there is also the possibility that Beijing could undertake new incursions into Indian territory to pressure New Delhi in the event Indian forces undertake surgical strikes against terrorist targets in Pakistan.
All of this goes to show that China cannot be our friend. It has an ironclad relationship with Pakistan, which it uses to hem in India. China doesn’t see India as an equal and neither wants India to be its equal in future. Hence, New Delhi must abandon all illusions of a friendly compact with Beijing. The latter only wants to momentarily placate New Delhi because it is under pressure from Washington. If that pressure eases with a future deal with Trump, Beijing will be back to its bullying ways with New Delhi. Therefore, the China-Pakistan compact must be treated as a long-term strategic challenge for India.
Ukraine-US deal: In a major breakthrough, Ukraine and US finally worked out a minerals deal, negotiations for which had seen tense moments over the last few months. The Trump-Zelenskyy bust-up at the White House in February came just as the two sides were about to sign the deal. This was followed by Trump reframing the deal as one that would compel Ukraine to pay back US for some $300 billion in military aid – a highly exaggerated figure. Zelenskyy rightly rejected this.
The new deal that was signed actually tracks the original deal. Accordingly, Ukraine will retain sovereign control of its subsoil minerals. A Reconstruction Fund will be set up on a 50-50 basis between Ukraine and US. Both will have equal rights over the fund and contribute equally to it. Future US military aid will count as American contribution to the fund. The fund will be capitalised through licences given out only on future projects in Ukrainian minerals, oil and gas. And all profits accruing from the fund will be reinvested in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
It's a solid deal that economically binds Ukraine and US. Sure, it doesn’t give Ukraine the security guarantees it wants. But it also doesn't stop Ukraine from joining EU. Plus, it keeps the US invested in Ukraine’s future. Which makes one wonder: What was all the kerfuffle about when this was the deal that was going to be signed? In fact, in hindsight, Zelenskyy was right to stand firm, reject Trump’s exaggerated demands and hold his ground. The minerals deal is a win for both Kyiv and Washington.
Canada gets Carney: In a remarkable turnaround, the Liberal Party in Canada stormed back to power in the general election this week despite being more than 20 points behind the opposition Conservatives in the beginning of the year. In fact, the Liberals’ – then led by PM Justin Trudeau – obituary had been written last year itself. The Trudeau administration was so unpopular – not to mention its run-ins with India over the Khalistani issue – that almost everybody and their uncle had predicted an overwhelming Conservative victory.
But then came Donald Trump and his bizarre proposition to annex Canada as the 51st US state. That turned out to be godsent for the Liberals. Trump's takeover threats along with his tariff war united Canadians. Plus, it severely undermined the Conservatives who were fashioning a Trumpian ‘Canada First’ campaign of their own. Meanwhile, the Liberals jumped to take over the nationalist mantle and vowed to fight Trump to the bitter end. Add to this the smart leadership change that saw Trudeau being replaced by former Canadian Central Bank governor Mark Carney as the PM, and the Liberals were on their way to script a historic comeback.
So, Trump did what no Canadian thought possible late last year. His tirade against Canada boomeranged big time. Moral of the story? Never say never in politics. Canada now stands as a beacon of hope for the liberal, globalist order.
50 years of end of Vietnam war: Vietnam this week celebrated 50 years of the end of the Vietnam war. A massive parade in Ho Chi Minh city marked the occasion, highlighting Vietnam's confidence as a rising star in Southeast Asia. Vietnam's impressive economic growth has transformed the country. Plus, on the foreign policy front, Vietnam today has successfully navigated geopolitical tensions, maintains cordial ties with both US and China, and upholds Asean's centrality in Southeast Asia.
Sure, there are also disputes with China over the South China Sea. That’s precisely why Vietnam follows a multifaceted strategy of expanded defence cooperation with multiple countries, including India. Add to this Vietnam's strong integration with global supply chains. But the biggest achievement of Vietnam has been its ability to even make its former foe US into a friend. Nothwithstanding Trump's tariffs, the US-Vietnam relationship remains sound. The adaptability and nimbleness of Vietnam's policies has been the key to its success over the past 30 years. With no political disputes between them and a whole lot of strategic opportunities, India and Vietnam must continue enhancing their bilateral ties for mutual benefit.
Pahalgam terror attack: In the worst terror attack in years, 26 tourists were gunned down by terrorists in Kashmir’s Pahalgam. The attack has not only shocked the nation but also posed a serious challenge for security agencies. That despite Kashmir’s formidable security dragnet the terrorists were able to slip through and cause mayhem against tourists – when targeting tourists has been a rarity in Kashmir – certainly points to serious lapses. Those lapses need to be thoroughly investigated and the probe report made public as soon as possible so that future Pahalgams are averted. This much we owe to the victims of the massacre and their grieving families, as well as to the state of Jammu & Kashmir that was on the path to normalcy after the nullification of its special status in 2019.
The next issue, however, is how should the Indian state respond to this provocation. For, the manner in which the Pahalgam attack was carried out, targeting Hindu, male tourists, was certainly meant to cause outrage and inflame communal passions in the country. The timing too was carefully chosen – when PM Modi was on a visit to Saudi Arabia and US Vice-President JD Vance was in India.
Therefore, Pahalgam was designed for maximum mileage and international attention. That it also came barely a week after Pakistan army chief Asim Munir gave a vitriolic speech against India in which he described Kashmir as Pakistan's “jugular” is more than just coincidence. The terrorists and their handlers in Pakistan, as well as the masterminds in Rawalpindi GHQ, wanted to divert attention from the Pakistani army’s own reverses in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in recent months. And with Pakistan’s economy in the ICU, and Imran Khan in jail, Munir’s so-called hybrid regime of a government in Islamabad was losing the Pakistani people’s confidence. Therefore, it is quite plausible that the Generals resorted to the oldest trick in their book to tackle the crisis of credibility – start trouble in Kashmir with India.
New Delhi has said it will retaliate against the terror perpetrators and has announced a first batch of measures that include suspending the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan, cancelling visas for Pakistani nationals, downgrading its diplomatic staff in Islamabad and ordering the down-staffing of the Pakistani high commission here. Pakistan has in turn responded by suspending the 1972 Simla Agreement and closing its airspace to India.
But New Delhi also reserves the right to carry out military-security operations against the terrorists and their handlers. Cross-border firing between Indian and Pakistani forces have restarted as both armies are on alert for a major clash. However, with the Ukraine and Gaza wars still going on, the international community, especially the US Trump administration, wouldn’t be in favour of another major conflagration in South Asia.
This presents a tricky situation for New Delhi that feels that the security equilibrium in the region has been broken with Pahalgam and needs to be restored. What military-security actions it takes will be carefully monitored by the world.
China stands with Pakistan: China has practically stood with Pakistan in the aftermath of the Pahalgam attacks. Beijing has called for a swift and fair investigation into the attack, echoing Islamabad’s position, and asserted that it understands Pakistan’s legitimate security concerns and supports it in safeguarding its security interests and security concerns. In other words, China doesn’t support India taking any military-security action against Pakistani terrorists and their handlers on Pakistani soil.
This seriously complicates things for New Delhi. First, despite the nascent thaw on the India-China LAC in recent months, there are still 50,000 Indian troops facing an equal number of Chinese soldiers along the LAC. Those Indian troops can’t be redeployed to the Pakistan sector for the fear of Chinese soldiers making further ingress into Indian territory. Second, in the event of a limited conflict with Pakistan, if Beijing provides geospatial intelligence to Islamabad through its huge constellation of satellites, then that will be a disadvantage for New Delhi. Third, with China continuing to rapidly develop military and dual-use infrastructure along the LAC, there is also the possibility that Beijing could undertake new incursions into Indian territory to pressure New Delhi in the event Indian forces undertake surgical strikes against terrorist targets in Pakistan.
All of this goes to show that China cannot be our friend. It has an ironclad relationship with Pakistan, which it uses to hem in India. China doesn’t see India as an equal and neither wants India to be its equal in future. Hence, New Delhi must abandon all illusions of a friendly compact with Beijing. The latter only wants to momentarily placate New Delhi because it is under pressure from Washington. If that pressure eases with a future deal with Trump, Beijing will be back to its bullying ways with New Delhi. Therefore, the China-Pakistan compact must be treated as a long-term strategic challenge for India.
Ukraine-US deal: In a major breakthrough, Ukraine and US finally worked out a minerals deal, negotiations for which had seen tense moments over the last few months. The Trump-Zelenskyy bust-up at the White House in February came just as the two sides were about to sign the deal. This was followed by Trump reframing the deal as one that would compel Ukraine to pay back US for some $300 billion in military aid – a highly exaggerated figure. Zelenskyy rightly rejected this.
The new deal that was signed actually tracks the original deal. Accordingly, Ukraine will retain sovereign control of its subsoil minerals. A Reconstruction Fund will be set up on a 50-50 basis between Ukraine and US. Both will have equal rights over the fund and contribute equally to it. Future US military aid will count as American contribution to the fund. The fund will be capitalised through licences given out only on future projects in Ukrainian minerals, oil and gas. And all profits accruing from the fund will be reinvested in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
It's a solid deal that economically binds Ukraine and US. Sure, it doesn’t give Ukraine the security guarantees it wants. But it also doesn't stop Ukraine from joining EU. Plus, it keeps the US invested in Ukraine’s future. Which makes one wonder: What was all the kerfuffle about when this was the deal that was going to be signed? In fact, in hindsight, Zelenskyy was right to stand firm, reject Trump’s exaggerated demands and hold his ground. The minerals deal is a win for both Kyiv and Washington.
Canada gets Carney: In a remarkable turnaround, the Liberal Party in Canada stormed back to power in the general election this week despite being more than 20 points behind the opposition Conservatives in the beginning of the year. In fact, the Liberals’ – then led by PM Justin Trudeau – obituary had been written last year itself. The Trudeau administration was so unpopular – not to mention its run-ins with India over the Khalistani issue – that almost everybody and their uncle had predicted an overwhelming Conservative victory.
But then came Donald Trump and his bizarre proposition to annex Canada as the 51st US state. That turned out to be godsent for the Liberals. Trump's takeover threats along with his tariff war united Canadians. Plus, it severely undermined the Conservatives who were fashioning a Trumpian ‘Canada First’ campaign of their own. Meanwhile, the Liberals jumped to take over the nationalist mantle and vowed to fight Trump to the bitter end. Add to this the smart leadership change that saw Trudeau being replaced by former Canadian Central Bank governor Mark Carney as the PM, and the Liberals were on their way to script a historic comeback.
So, Trump did what no Canadian thought possible late last year. His tirade against Canada boomeranged big time. Moral of the story? Never say never in politics. Canada now stands as a beacon of hope for the liberal, globalist order.
50 years of end of Vietnam war: Vietnam this week celebrated 50 years of the end of the Vietnam war. A massive parade in Ho Chi Minh city marked the occasion, highlighting Vietnam's confidence as a rising star in Southeast Asia. Vietnam's impressive economic growth has transformed the country. Plus, on the foreign policy front, Vietnam today has successfully navigated geopolitical tensions, maintains cordial ties with both US and China, and upholds Asean's centrality in Southeast Asia.
Sure, there are also disputes with China over the South China Sea. That’s precisely why Vietnam follows a multifaceted strategy of expanded defence cooperation with multiple countries, including India. Add to this Vietnam's strong integration with global supply chains. But the biggest achievement of Vietnam has been its ability to even make its former foe US into a friend. Nothwithstanding Trump's tariffs, the US-Vietnam relationship remains sound. The adaptability and nimbleness of Vietnam's policies has been the key to its success over the past 30 years. With no political disputes between them and a whole lot of strategic opportunities, India and Vietnam must continue enhancing their bilateral ties for mutual benefit.
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