Gold price prediction today: What's the gold rate outlook for May 23, 2025 - should you buy or sell?

Gold price prediction today: Gold prices are set to record a weekly gain after fluctuating for the last few weeks. The gold rate is still off its all-time high and investors are wondering whether they should buy, sell or hold gold. What gold price levels should you watch out for? Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst - Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities explains:

MCX Gold June 2025 contract is trading at ₹95600, positioned at a critical technical juncture after recent consolidation near resistance levels. The precious metal has shown signs of exhaustion near the ₹96000 zone, with technical indicators aligning for potential downside moves. Today presents two distinct selling opportunities for intraday traders.

Gold: Current Technical Picture

The gold market is displaying classic signs of distribution after failing to sustain above key resistance levels. Price action reveals a struggling bullish momentum with the metal unable to decisively break higher, creating an ideal setup for contrarian strategies.

Key Technical Parameters:

• Current Price: ₹95600
• EMA 8: ₹95550
• EMA 21: ₹95650
• RSI (14): 57.50 (neutral with downward bias)
• Bollinger Bands: Price consolidating near the middle band with upper band rejection
• Previous Day's Pivot: Key levels acting as resistance barriers

Strategy 1: Sell on Rise Near ₹95800

Technical Rationale:

The ₹95800 level represents a confluence of resistance factors including the upper Bollinger Band, previous day's pivot resistance, and psychological resistance. This zone has repeatedly rejected upward attempts, making it an attractive sell zone.

Entry Parameters:

• Sell Zone: ₹95750-95850
• Stop Loss: ₹96050 (above recent swing high)
• Target 1: ₹95400 (immediate support)
• Target 2: ₹95200 (key breakdown level)
• Target 3: ₹94950 (extended target for aggressive traders)

Execution Guidelines:

• Wait for bearish reversal candlestick patterns (doji, shooting star, or bearish engulfing)
• Confirm with RSI showing negative divergence or failure to cross 60
• Volume should be declining on up moves approaching the sell zone
• Trail stop loss to ₹95650 once Target 1 is achieved

Strategy 2: Breakdown Below ₹95250

Technical Rationale:

A decisive break below ₹95250 would confirm the failure of the recent consolidation and trigger a deeper correction. This level coincides with previous support and the lower boundary of the current trading range.

Entry Parameters:

• Breakdown Level: ₹95250
• Entry Price: ₹95200 (on decisive break)
• Stop Loss: ₹95450 (above breakdown level)
• Target 1: ₹94900 (immediate support)
• Target 2: ₹94650 (next significant support)
• Target 3: ₹94300 (major support zone)

Execution Guidelines:

• Wait for 15-minute candle close below ₹95250 with increased volume
• RSI should preferably be below 50 for confirmation
• Avoid entry if breakdown occurs with extremely low volume
• Consider partial profit booking at each target level

Gold Market Outlook

Gold appears to be forming a potential reversal pattern after recent gains. The metal's inability to sustain above ₹96000 levels suggests underlying weakness. Key factors supporting the bearish bias include:

1. Technical Exhaustion: Multiple rejections at resistance levels
2. Moving Average Resistance: Price struggling near EMA 21
3. Volume Pattern: Declining volume on up moves indicates lack of conviction
4. Global Factors: Strengthening dollar and rising bond yields

The precious metal faces a critical test at current levels. A failure to reclaim ₹96000 decisively could trigger a deeper correction toward ₹94500-₹94800 support zone.

Risk Management

Both strategies require strict adherence to stop losses given the volatile nature of precious metals.

Traders should:

• Never risk more than 2% of capital per trade
• Use appropriate position sizing
• Monitor global cues including dollar index and bond yields
• Be prepared to exit if price action contradicts the analysis

Market Catalysts to Watch

• US economic data releases
• Federal Reserve commentary
• Geopolitical developments
• Dollar index movements
• Global equity market sentiment

(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)