US and Israeli warplanes will move against Iran in weeks if Tehran doesn't back down

I have been saying it for months, nay years, now, but the time that Iran will face the wrath of the USA and its ally Israel is fast approaching. Nobody can be surprised. Over the past decades Iran has supported, financed, trained, and equipped a multitude of terrorist and jihadist groupings across the Middle East and elsewhere with one sole purpose: the eradication of Israel and the defeat of the USA in the region.

One by one the major recipients of Tehran's support have been degraded or eliminated - Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and now the Houthis in Yemen. Other smaller groups have received the same treatment. But defeating all of these organisations has been treating the symptoms of the disease of terrorism; the time has come to deal with the source of the illness itself. Iran can have no complaints.

The preliminary work has already been completed by the Israelis. They have taken out the important bits of Iran's air defence systems in a series of actions over the past months, most notably on 26 October 2024, when it launched three waves of strikes against 20 locations in Iran and other locations in Iraq, and Syria, codenamed Operation Days of Repentance.

These attacks opened the way for future strikes. At the same time, Donald Trump recently authorised a series of US air attacks against the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and directly threatened Tehran with direct US attacks against it if it did not stop arming the rebels.

The USA is clearly preparing for military action. Six B-2 Spirit strategic bombers have been moved to the joint UK/US base at Diego Garcia in the Chagos Islands in the Indian Ocean - the very islands British PM Sir Keir Starmer seems Hell-bent on handing over to Mauritius and then leasing the base back.

The B-2 bombers are important for two reasons; first they have the range to reach Iran with ease and the stealth technology to penetrate what's left of Iranian air defences with little difficulty. Second, they are capable of carrying two (each) of the GBU-57A/B MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator) bomb, a precision-guided, 30,000-pound (14,000 kg) "bunker buster" ordnance designed to penetrate and destroy targets hidden deep in the depths of the ground, as are Iran's nuclear facilities.

In addition, the aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson and its accompanying Carrier Strike Group has been ordered to join US naval assets already in the Red Sea, which include the carrier USS Harry S Truman and its escorts. Their joint air wings will have approximately 160 aircraft of all types, many of which are more than capable of carrying out strikes on Iran if so ordered.

Tehran is hardly oblivious to this gathering of military might, or of the additional threat from the IDF air force. In riposte Iran has threatened US bases and forces in an attempt to discourage potential US or Israeli strikes on its nuclear facilities. Iranian media has reported that Iran could attack Diego Garcia using very long-range one-way attack drones or by using a naval surface combatant to launch drones and cruise missiles.

In reality there is little likelihood of Iran mounting any credible attack on Diego Garcia. Its drones are too slow and too vulnerable to interception, and such ballistic missiles as it has are inaccurate and would have to be adapted with much smaller payloads to reach that far.

The risk to US warships in the Red Sea and to Israeli territory are more credible, it is true, but only just. Their missiles and drones would face a vast arsenal of defences at sea and on land and would likely achieve little. And the backlash both political and military would be overwhelming.

So the stage is almost set for the next iteration of the Iran-US/Israel confrontation. There will certainly be all sorts of diplomatic machinations going on behind the scenes to prevent further kinetic conflict breaking out, but time marches on.

My personal view is that if Tehran does not back down and agree to US demands to stop backing the Houthis - and also to come clean on the details of its nuclear programme - then we will see US and Israeli warplanes over Iran within the next few weeks.

Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at