Ceasefire or diversion: Maoists struggle amid losses, discord and leadership vacuum

New Delhi, Sep 18 (IANS) It has become increasingly clear that the Maoists in India are running out of steam. Two ceasefire offers have been made by the Maoists between April and September this year.

While the agencies are verifying whether this is a genuine offer, they also remain skeptical about this. The Union Home Minister has set a deadline of March 2026 to end the Maoist menace in India.

He has said that they would either have to surrender before the deadline or face the security forces and play with their own lives.

In April this year, a group of 54 organisations appealed to the Maoists as well as the government of India to declare a ceasefire and stop the use of violence.

Earlier this week, the Communist Party of India (Maoist) announced a temporary suspension of its armed struggle.

They also called for a one month ceasefire so that peace talks could take place with the government.

These developments come in the wake of scores of Maoists surrendering in recent times. While this does mark a shift in the manner in which the Maoists are thinking, the security agencies are still skeptical and do not want to commit anything until all details have been verified.

There are a number of reasons for which this ceasefire has been called for.

Officials say that currently the Maoists are a divided lot.

After facing such huge losses there is a lot of discord from within with some wanting to continue the fight and others wanting peace with the government.

The recent offer for a ceasefire was made through a letter written by Abhay an alias for senior leader Mallojula Venugopal. He also goes by the aliases Bhupathi and Sonu.

If the letter is indeed true then it is a significant development since Venugopal is a member of the outfit’s politburo and central committee.

Security officials say that there would no immediate response to the offer unless and until all possible verification is done. The letter could be due to a split from within the organisation or just a plain diversionary tactic.

Currently, the Maoists are in disarray and they would require time to regroup. In the event of the government agreeing for a ceasefire, this would mean that there would be no action by the security forces.

This would give them ample time to regroup as well as recruit. In addition to the strong action by the security forces, what has divided and depressed the Maoists is the death of their top leader Basavaraju in May.

Since then, there has been a lot of changes and the organisation has not been able to appoint a head. The government on the other hand is not averse to a ceasefire, provided it is a genuine offer.

A ceasefire and the subsequent peace talks however would not ensure that these Maoists who are laying down arms would not face the law.

The law would take its own course, officials also added.

If the agencies investigating the letter are able to rule out that this offer was made as a diversionary tactic, then there is plenty of trouble in Maoist land.

Of late, they have faced losses galore. The ideology is almost dead as the senior leaders have either died or been killed.

The newer recruits who are the foot soldiers are not aligned with the ideology. This means that they have been fighting because they have been paid or threatened. Such a tactic does not work for too long.

Moreover, the money flow has dried up and this has only made matters worse for the Maoists.

For now, the government is leaving nothing to chance. All measures are being taken to verify the authenticity of the letter. Even if the letter is authentic, then there would have to be a check on the intent.

As of now, there are no instructions to the security forces to slow down on their operations. All operations will go on as plan and the fight is very much on.

--IANS

vicky/pgh