Tariff war threatens your job: These sectors to be hit

You have read the news and seen the memes. The US-triggered tariff action against all countries, including India, has caused massive turmoil everywhere, be it in the stock markets, gold prices or company boardrooms. For you, it is not just a geopolitical game, but a possible career threat that could squeeze your job. With companies looking at uncertain exports, loss of sales or lower margins, the job market will go into a stormy phase across manufacturing, technology, logistics and services. Find out how you could be impacted and what to do about it.

Manufacturing
First to feel the burn: An Indian auto major halted exports to the US in April, when retaliatory tariffs made their cars commercially unviable. Export-based manufacturers across automobiles, engineering, chemicals, precious stones and textiles are unsure how the tariff war will play out and want to pause capacity expansion, hiring and capital expenses. If you are working for a manufacturer, its ancillary industries, or in a satellite town nearby, consider switching to firms that target domestic markets, or to unaffected spaces like EV companies. Meanwhile, invest in upskilling yourself in automation, compliance or sustainable manufacturing. Expect 6-12 months of stagnation, followed by a rebound driven by ‘China+1’ theme, as well as from a competitive advantage over other suppliers in the US market, in sectors like apparels, chemicals, plastic and rubber.

Logistics
Uncertainty piles up: After the tariffs kicked in, there was a sudden drop in the US-bound cargo traffic, leading to incoming cargo ship cancellations at the US ports and corresponding shipping containers piling up at Chinese trade hubs. When factories slow down and ships idle, logistics professionals face job instability. Daily wagers in shipping, port operations and international freight are facing layoffs and contract suspensions. Soon, domestic transport will come under pressure as global flows take a breather. If you are affected, consider that jobs will be safer in local logistics, hyper-local delivery and fleet management. The situation should normalise in 6-9 months, but your job profile may alter to suit new realities. Meanwhile, consider acquiring skills in digital supply chain platforms or route optimisation.

Electronics & pharma
The cost crunch: News reported a large pharmaceutical company laying off 25% of its workforce, which the company promptly denied. Notwithstanding this, the pharma industry is looking at higher cost of APIs from China, arising from the huge US tariffs. Similarly, in electronics, where China is the largest supplier of components, the input costs could go by by 15-20%. Thus, companies’ margins will come under pressure and they will halt expansion, cease R&D, freeze lateral hiring, and consolidate roles internally. If you are working here, look at employers focused on indigenisation or linked to government support, like PLI schemes. Meanwhile, expand your skills to sourcing, vendor management or localisation strategies. Recovery in these sectors will depend on India’s new trade deals and policy response. If the government extends incentives for domestic component manufacturing and API parks, expect new jobs and career growth in these industries.

IT & tech services
Freeze today, flight tomorrow: The Indian IT index crashed by nearly 10% in the first week of April. IT and tech services companies foresee a summer of pain from the trade wars, plus the US backlash against work visas and immigrants. US companies are pausing hiring and reducing onsite opportunities via H-1B visas. However, as their internal costs increase, the US firms will increase offshoring projects later. So, you can focus on pivoting to AI, cloud and cyber security roles, and look for freelancing opportunities via the US platforms to ride out the rough six months before the offshore-led job recovery. On the plus side, mid-tier Indian tech firms will gain contracts shifting from higher cost countries, while startups and SaaS and cyber risk firms are likely to increase hiring.

Small businesses & services
The silent squeeze: A laboratory equipment manufacturer in Boston suddenly received an e-mail from a Canadian University in April, pausing its purchase order. The second degree impact of tariff wars will trickle down to small and medium businesses in USA and India. Think of tier 2 and tier 3 vendors, marketing and HR companies, and consulting firms that serve export giants as well as US small businesses. These will see contracts being postponed or withdrawn, leading to payment delays, retainer cuts and reduced cash flow. The headcount will reduce if the small business or service has to survive. If you are affected, look for roles in D2C businesses or those serving Indian clients. Also explore part-time work and consulting while you invest in learning new skills in analytics, marketing automation and revenue operations. Recovery in jobs will follow recovery in the main market in 12-18 months. Till then, demand will increase for mid-level freelancers and gig workers in domestic-focused advisory and government-backed projects.

What you can do today
Your tariff toolkit: Wherever you work, use a three-step response plan. First, map out your company’s exposure to exports, international client base and sources of raw material, to understand the impact. Second, work on upgrading your value to the market by picking one high-demand skill, like AI or sourcing or remote tools, and begin learning it via free courses and paid workshops. Finally, diversify your income sources and consider a side hustle. As you take action, keep a lookout for government intervention, policy changes and schemes that can reduce your risks and create new opportunities. Don’t wait for the trade wars to hit your career. Be prepared!

WHY YOU NEED A SIDE HUSTLE NOW
1. SECOND INCOME
Don’t rely on one job to keep the home fires burning. In a trade war, your employer may collapse or may need to cut costs. An additional source of income gives you longevity and control over your life. Create a new income stream from writing, tutoring, baking or renting.

2. USE WHAT YOU ALREADY KNOW
Don’t chase new degrees. Use your existing skills or hobbies. If you can code, design, sell or tell a story, look for paid gigs on Upwork, LinkedIn or in your own network. You could also teach your skill to a paying audience on Instagram.

3. DON’T BE PERFECT, START NOW
Bypass the analysis paralysis and negative self-talk. Try out one idea this weekend, like writing a resume for someone, conducting a workshop, selling a template or consulting for a small company. Try it today, refine it tomorrow. In a slow job market, chase momentum not mastery.

4. BE EASY TO FIND
Create a simple online presence on LinkedIn or Instagram to share your expertise. Use free Canva to design your profile. Share short posts on LinkedIn or content on Insta to let clients and recruiters know about your expertise. Keep the content flowing since visibility is your currency.

5. GATHER TIMELESS SKILLS
Your side hustle is also a learning platform. You get to practise client handling, pricing, negotiation, delivery and growth challenges. All these skills will be invaluable tomorrow to start a business or climb the corporate ladder. You become harder to replace and, thus, resilient against volatility.

THE WRITER IS FOUNDER SALARYNEXT.COM, A JOB LOSS ASSURANCE FIRM, AND AUTHOR OF GET HIRED IN 30 DAYS.


(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this column are that of the writer. The facts and opinions expressed here do not reflect the views of www.economictimes.com)